Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate

"I like prizes that are quite specific, and I was delighted a few years ago to discover the Pushkin House Book Prize. The prize goes to the year’s best nonfiction book about Russia. This year’s winner was Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by Mary Elise Sarotte, a professor at Johns Hopkins. It looks at the missed opportunities of the 1990s—in the hopeful years after the fall of Soviet communism—for rapprochement between the US and Russia. These two countries still possess more than 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads, so it’s a history worth understanding."

"Although the other books have, in some ways, a historical perspective, this is written by a professional historian, Mary Elise Sarotte. This is the story of NATO’s relations with Russia during the 1990s. “Not one inch” is a reference to a statement made in February 1990 by US Secretary of State James Baker, shortly beforeGerman unification, when he said that NATO would not encroach upon territory in then still Communist East Germany . What he actually meant was specific to the circumstances of the time—how to imagine the terms of German unification. His statement had not broader meaning to Europe – after all, the Warsaw Pact was still in existence, and it would in fact have been impossible for NATO to enlarge. But that phrase has been used ever since by the Russians to argue that NATO enlargement, any increase in its membership, is illegitimate. Sarotte demonstrates the circumstances of the time in which that statement was made. But the main purpose of the book is do show how the great promise of NATO-Russia relations in the early 1990s went terribly wrong. Through no-one’s grand design. It wasn’t the case that Americans were seeking to exploit Russian weakness, or Russia was deliberately being difficult or aggressive. It was a series of unintended consequences. Overarching it all was the historic process of NATO enlargement. By the time the book is concluding—in 1999, NATO’s 50th anniversary—it has absorbed a unified Germany and is taking in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Sarotte concludes the story there, but looks forward across the next 20 years and reflects on how enlargement has become the deepest source of division between NATO and Russia, which in part explains where we are today. Although it was published before the war in Ukraine, it anticipates the depth of grievance in Moscow and its attitude towards Ukraine. And it’s a great history book , because it looks back in order to look forward, and sees it as an unintended outcome of a series of small decisions, which when taken as a whole add up to what people now see as a new division and Cold War in Europe. It’s a great insight into how decisions of the past continue to haunt the present. As a work of history, it’s first rate. She also wrote another book, 1989: The Struggle to Create Post-War Europe , which tells a similar story about how the Cold War came to an end and how NATO was positioned at that time, and how German unification came about. So, if anyone wants to understand how NATO survived on a practical level, theoretically, and looking at the deep history of it, her books are probably the best place to start. A year ago, I would have said this was completely unlikely. But given the war in Ukraine, it seems entirely feasible. Sweden and Finland would be able to join very quickly if they made a formal approach to NATO because they are sophisticated democracies with very advanced armed forces, and would be an asset to the NATO alliance. So on one hand, their membership is entirely conceivable. Domestic opinion, particularly in Finland, has swung behind membership in a way that it had not until about six months ago. It’s generally said that Finland is likely to put in an application before Sweden, but I would have thought both countries would coordinate any such approach. But there is currently no formal application on the table. It would be fast-tracked if it were to occur. And if the war in Ukraine drags on for months, if not years, I think it’s almost inevitable that Finland and Sweden would wish to join. What is much less likely, I’m afraid, is Ukraine. I never thought it likely, but I think even less so now. That would mean taking in a country devastated by war, and which would take NATO right up to Russia’s borders… Although Finland has a long border with Russia, the Ukraine case is very different. Ukraine itself, of course, is now aiming for neutrality, rather than NATO membership. In my book choices, I wanted a mix of popular history and the theory. I have tried to avoid the official or semi-official accounts. The Secretary General’s annual report on NATO is bang up to the minute and would give the general reader a lot of insight, but it is a bit dull, and obviously also the official line. There’s also no outwardly critical book here. But for people who want five books that will give them a good spread of understanding, I think these are pretty comprehensive."