War and Change in World Politics

"War and Change was for me the first book which provided a compelling explanation of the rise and fall of great powers over time. There are a lot of books that address this issue and for me Gilpin’s book offers the most straightforward and persuasive in the theory of what it is that causes powers that are at the top of the pecking order to lose, over time, their advantages and eventually be eclipsed by rising challengers. It is one of the most pervasive patterns in history and one of the patterns that causes the most war in history. In that sense it is a book which is foundational for the study of international diplomacy and conflict. The main theory that he offers is that modes of innovation over time move from the core to the periphery of the international system. The periphery borrows the best technology from the core and gradually it is able to surpass the core by generating better economic growth, better productivity. The economic growth ultimately leads to military power. And so his theory contrasts with, for example, the work of Paul Kennedy. In his book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers Kennedy argues that great powers fall because they spend too much on defence. However, I think that empirically Gilpin offers a better explanation of this pattern of rise and fall over time than does Kennedy. If you look at cases where countries sustain high levels of defence spending, there you do see that such expenditure cuts into economic growth – Japan in the 1930s and Nazi Germany. Israel today spends upwards of ten per cent. You have to get into the double digits to have defence spending cut into your economic performance. But, in general, a country like the United States or Great Britain at its peak wasn’t spending enough to really dampen its performance. Rather what happened is that over time the US overtook Britain due to America’s secular rise. Now it is Asia that is borrowing the best technology and emerging as the new node of innovation and production. One would expect that over the course of this century China would gradually catch up with the United States."