Syria: The Fall of the House of Assad

"This book remains highly topical. When you read it—I just reread all the parts of it I had underlined (and there were many)—all of his analysis is very well argued and sophisticated. David Lesch told me that ‘ The Fall of the House of Assad ’ was the subtitle the publisher wanted, but if you read the preface you will see that he himself thought the Assad regime could very well survive the domestic uprising. David Lesch is, to my knowledge, the only foreign academic who has had extensive personal access to President Bashar al-Assad. He actually wrote an earlier book about the Bashar al-Assad regime, called The New Lion of Damascus . His second book is important for me, because he gives an insight into the mentality and inner workings of the regime. Lesch has noted, for instance, that the power accumulated over the years by the Syrian Mukhabarat (intelligence services) has led to systematic recklessness, which backfired against the regime. For instance, he writes about how he once came to Damascus to interview the president but was stopped and interrogated for three hours. And he said, ‘But I am going to see the president!’ This was an indication that in Syria the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing, and that they did not seem to care. The intelligence services were acting on their own initiative, and this, according to Lesch, meant that there developed a disconnect that is both dangerous and an abdication of authority. It means the president does not always have full control over them. Another thing Lesch mentions is that the regime doesn’t like to be told what to do, and that it does not like to make concessions when under pressure. But what I pointed out in my book is that Bashar al-Assad does not like to give in when he is in a position of strength either. He’s very disappointed by Assad. He got to know Assad quite well and even tried to send him messages with policy suggestions at the beginning of the revolution. Later on, David Lesch accepted that in order to stay in power, Bashar al-Assad had to play according to the Syrian rules. He notes that the regime cannot reform, because then it would undermine itself. His knowledge and evaluation of the internal workings of the regime is a very important aspect of this book. Lesch is actually going to publish another book next year (2019), entitled Syria: A Modern History . I have read the manuscript. His forthcoming book is much more general, starting from early times, through Roman and Ottoman times up till now. It is an excellent and balanced analysis of Syrian contemporary history, enabling readers to access and understand the wide-ranging complexities of Syria today. People interested in the Syrian revolution can focus on the last part, where he sums up his analysis and conclusions of what has happened since the publication of his earlier work, and what he expects to happen with this revolution and Syria’s future prospects. In general people have tended to look at the Syrian revolution mainly from the perspective of the opposition and neglected the realities of the regime, except for its cruel dictatorial aspects. That is what is also missing in various books. They take the regime for granted. They don’t look at how the regime is, in fact, extremely strong because of sectarian, family and other loyalties. People would have done better to know more about the regime, because if you want to defeat your adversary, you must know it. That is what you will find in both the book by Lesch and the one by Fabrice Balanche. We are now talking about books published after 2011. Last time we spoke about books from a different era, about the hidden treasures of Damascus and a novel . But of the books which have been published after 2011, many side either with the opposition or with the regime. It is very important to look at books that do not side with either, but observe in a neutral manner. That is what Lesch’s book does."