The Martian

"The best science fiction is heavy on science and light on fiction. It’s good fiction but it’s driven by extensive, rigorous, and well-anchored science. For example, The Martian , which I chose as one of the books. We were starting the twin study when that came out. Everyone around NASA headquarters was reading it. The book started as chapters that were released for free and everyone was effusive in their praise for the accuracy of the technical details and the acumen of the writer to get everything just right. Even though it’s fiction, everything’s based on technology and methods that exist. It required no new technology that we don’t have right now. I based my book on the same concept: based on everything we know today, what could I reasonably project we’d be able to do in the next 500 years? Scott Kelly spent a year in space. A lot of the logistics was about collecting samples from space and doing every kind of molecular profiling we can, because we don’t know what happens to the body after a year of being in space, at least at a molecular level. We knew that it was possible to survive because the Russians did it first. But only three cosmonauts had gone past a year. It was the first ever NASA mission that was that long. We embedded so many metrics and medical measurements that we could get an unparalleled view of what happened in the body. Scott was really a pioneer in giving blood, sweat and tears to the study and much more—stool and skin and all sorts of samples. Get the weekly Five Books newsletter It was a little bit frightening, because you can see how much his body really did not like being in space that long. Once he got to space, it was okay, it was really coming back from space that was very difficult on his body. His ankles swelled up to the size of basketballs. All these molecular markers called cytokines or inflammation markers, were spiking. There was an eerie similarity when we started looking at COVID-19 patients. We could see some of the same spikes of the body’s pro and anti-inflammatory systems battling each other. For Scott it was bad for a few days and then it went back to normal again, whereas for COVID patients some of these just persist for days or months. And they don’t go away. But what we learned is that the body is plastic. All these things might be painful and difficult, but the body is extraordinarily adaptive. He did get DNA damage that we could measure. We could see fragments of DNA and loss of bone in his urine. We could see gene expression changes and the immune system really underwent a lot of stress. But his body managed to adapt. Writ large, it was surprisingly adaptive towards spaceflight. Some of his aging signatures got better in space. His telomeres got longer so, in some ways, he did get genetically younger in space. His ‘clonal hematopoiesis’ also got better in space, which is how many clones in your blood are carrying mutations. Some of his epigenetic age, the metrics of aging, looked stable. So, all things considered, not too bad. Mark Kelly has been to space, about 54 days total across a few missions. Scott Kelly has been up there about 525 days, if I recall, so about 10 times longer. Imagine being at a cocktail party and telling someone both of your sons are astronauts. No one would believe you, but it’s true. Actually, very soon. It’s planned to happen in about 12 to 13 years, sending a crew there. Now the first crew will be there for a very short term. What is depicted in The Martian is probably in a matter of 10 or 20 years. I don’t think it’s 50 to 100 years, because the plan is to have people there, potentially, by the end of this decade. Elon Musk would like it to be tomorrow. I think that’s a bit ambitious, it’s more likely the early 2030s. “I think it’s only a question of when, not if, we leave the solar system” It’s not just the United States, it’s also private enterprise, it’s multiple other countries. Unlike the space race of the 60s, when there were two big players, now we have five or six pretty big players and some private players. There’s almost an order of magnitude bigger of a space race today than what we had 50 years ago. Whenever you get a grant from NASA you have to sign a document that promises that none of the funds will be used for anyone that is in China, that works for someone in China or that has any relation to anyone in China. There’s a clear wall of separation, a firewall between anything happening in NASA and anything in the Chinese space agency. I understand, politically, why that’s the case. But scientifically, I think it’s a wasted opportunity, because they’re expanding very rapidly. They developed cotton plants that can grow on the moon, and they have multiple missions. It’s amazing. They’re ramping up their space program, akin to what the US was doing in the 60s. It could really be an extraordinary time to work with them. There’s even a term for this at the State Department: ‘science diplomacy’. If you get scientists together, they’re generally trying to solve the mysteries of the universe and work together. And it is one way you to bridge the gap between cultures and politics. But politics usually gets in the way, after a while. China is ramping up, Russia is still doing a lot in space. Israel had their spacecraft that crashed on the moon, India has a space program that’s ramping up, the UAE has one. There are obviously the Japanese and European space agencies that are have been going for a while and are still ongoing. We’re now approaching more than 10 different agencies. There’s even one for Australia. They’ve never flown anything, but they do have a new space agency they’ve just started. It’s an exciting time because there’s never been more. It’s a good question, what’s driving them. Maybe every country is a little bit different. A lot of the scientists and staff who work at NASA, or in my lab, just have an innate sense of curiosity. There’s a very human characteristic of exploration that is driving a lot of it. Politically, though, some of it is probably driven by the prestige and saying: ‘We are a spacefaring country.’ It also gives you access to satellites that control communication systems, there’s questions of defense. A lot of these geopolitical machinations are also at play. In my case, I have this sense of duty towards humanity that I feel I must fulfil for my limited time on this planet. We’ve got about a billion years. We’ve got some time, but it’s not infinite. To me, a billion seems really short in the grand scheme of things. It’s just not that far away. I’ll be dead for the vast majority of it, but the problem won’t go away. It’s the laziest thing a human being can do is to say, ‘Well, I’ll be dead. I’ll just leave this problem to someone coming after me.’ Why would you do such thing? I’ve started to look up what the last 500 million years of Earth’s history looks like in terms of its temperature. If you look at the last 50 million years, it’s interesting to see how much it’s fluctuated. It’s actually strikingly stable. It’s always within about 40 degrees, over everything that’s happened. Now, there were some times before then where the Earth was all magma and was much hotter or colder. And there’ll be a time about a billion years from now where it starts to get much hotter and there’s not much we can do about it unless we literally move the earth. (There’s a movie about that called Wandering Earth , actually). But I was pleasantly surprised. I thought it would have been much more varied over the past. Now, whenever there are big swings, mass extinctions have occurred. Again, we’re the only ones that know this is the case. And we’re the only ones that can do anything about it. It’s a fabulous book of something that will likely be in our near future, of people on Mars, hopefully not using their own stool as fertilizer, necessarily, but of people that can be on Mars and make their way back."