Hubbert’s Peak

"Hubbert was a geophysicist who worked for the oil companies. He created a method of modelling and measuring the American oil reserve back in the 50s. His model predicted what our oil consumption curve would look like. It’s very mathematical, but the curves he came up with were pretty astonishing in predicting that the US would reach peak oil between 1965 and 1970. He was within a year or two of being exactly right. Expanding that model to the whole earth is difficult because we don’t know exactly what the reserves are, but the same methodology applies. If we had a good handle on the reserves we would be able to tell pretty accurately when the world will reach peak oil, and what the fall-off of oil reserves is going to look like after that point. So it’s a very important work, solidly based in science. Deffeyes tells the story of how Hubbert developed this model, and he projects that the world will reach peak oil production within the next decade. The book is a warning that we should all heed, but it’s also a brisk read for people who are interested in the substance and science of energy issues . It’s very challenging – pretty scary actually – because we’ve become so dependent on fossil fuel that if we run short people are going to demand that we take steps to access more resources. That means potential military operations to secure oil fields and pipelines. It might mean offensive military action to secure our oil future. And the US is not the only country in this situation. China is very dependent on fossil fuels for its industrial growth, and not just China but every industrialised country in the world. So the implications are significant, and we don’t want to find ourselves going down the path of competing for scarce resources in worldwide conflicts."