Heuristics and Biases

"This is another really good set of essays in a rapidly growing branch of intellectual enquiry called behavioural economics where they look at the irrationalities in the way that humans behave. I thought this was brilliant. One essay in particular on irrational optimism caught my eye. It’s the idea that individuals who have slightly inflated expectations of their own abilities tend to persevere longer and perform better. These top sportsmen when they perform under pressure – if they believe they are going to win they often will. This belief makes them more efficacious and the book is a really interesting look at that whole idea of positive thinking. If you have self-doubt and you doubt your ability to do something it really can inhibit your performance. Whereas if you believe you are going to do something it can really bolster your performance. It is kind of like the placebo effect: if you believe that a particular drug is going to work with certain types of ailments it is far more likely that it will work. Support Five Books Five Books interviews are expensive to produce. If you're enjoying this interview, please support us by donating a small amount . It may well be the case that when it comes to England playing football in the World Cup there is an insufficient level of collective belief in the team. That has been our problem. I have thought long and hard about this and it is tough to know why that should be because obviously English football is very successful and we have got the Champion’s League. I was out there in South Africa and we played appallingly and it is not just this team but previous English teams as well. I don’t have an answer but it does seem to be a phenomenon that needs explaining. I think you are right about that. The thing about sport is that it just reflects human psychology. We are Darwinian – we do like to have hierarchies and we do like to win, whether it is in sport or at work or at life – so removing competition from school is very self-defeating."