The Electoral System in Britain since 1918

"David Butler was my mentor at Oxford. He has long since retired, but I have learnt a lot from him. One simple but important lesson was never to argue about ascertainable facts. If I say that there is a book in the next room, and you say that there is not, there's no point arguing – let us look! Butler is a great empiricist: he actually looked at how the electoral system worked. This is a factual book, but it ruins many wild generalisations about the electoral system. You started by asking me about the AV referendum. In the referendum debate, there have been wild generalisations on both sides. People do not really know how the alternative vote actually works, for example, in Australia. This book pours a glass of cold water on generalisations about elections and electoral systems. It is a painstaking work, which I greatly admire. A dose of empiricism would, I believe, cure many of the ills of the world. I think there are big misconceptions on both sides. The 'Nos' are absurd to say that AV gives some people two or even three votes. If I ask you to buy me a Mars, unless the shop has run out of Mars, in which case I would like a Twix, I get one bar of chocolate not two. A transferred vote is not a multiple vote. The 'Yeses' are absurd to say that AV would end the scandal of the safe seat. By definition, in a safe seat, the winner must gain 50% of the vote, so AV would not make the slightest difference. Of course, a referendum is not an academic seminar. Party political interests are involved. The actual change in representation with the alternative vote would probably be quite small, but no one wants to say that – they have to exaggerate and say the other side is mimicking Goebbels or telling lies. I wrote an article in the Guardian last week saying that the public are not interested in this issue, and that it is a politicians’ issue. There are members of the public who favour electoral change, but they tend to favour proportional representation. Yes – turnout will be very low, particularly in London where there are no local elections. Turnout for the 1998 referendum on whether London should have a mayor was only 34%, even though it had been said that Londoners were furious at their lack of proper representation. With no local elections and little popular interest, turnout in London is likely to be very low indeed on May 5."